In November, long-standing tensions between Japan and China flared up when Japan’s new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, made a statement implying that Japan would intervene militarily if China were to invade Taiwan.  

‘According to its own legislation, Japan is only allowed to intervene militarily abroad if the survival of the country itself is at stake’, says Casper Wits, assistant professor in East Asia Studies who specialises in relations between China and Japan. On Monday 26 January, he will give a current affairs lecture on the subject. 

Takaichi’s statement was not well received by the Chinese, says Wits. ‘This is because they view Taiwan as a domestic matter – something other countries should not interfere with.’

However, Taiwan’s location is important to Japan. ‘Japan has very few natural resources of its own. For example, they import a lot of oil from the Middle East and liquefied natural gas from Southeast Asia and Australia. All those tankers pass through the South China Sea and then past Taiwan. If these were suddenly no longer free international waters because China controlled the entire region, it could economically strangle Japan and quickly bring the country to its knees. That is why Taiwan is seen as an existential problem in Tokyo.’

ANTI-JAPANESE SENTIMENT

Furthermore, there is still a lot of bad blood between the two countries. Two wars have been fought between them. The First Sino-Japanese War (1894-95) was won by Japan. The Second Sino-Japanese War, which lasted from 1937 to 1945, was a campaign waged by the imperialist militaristic Japanese empire against the Chinese. 

‘The Japanese committed a vast number of war crimes during that period. In China, there is a strong sense that they have shown no remorse for this. Whenever Japanese international policy rubs China up the wrong way, it is immediately interpreted as: “ah look, the Japanese are still up to something sinister”.

‘The Chinese government plays into this by successfully stoking strong anti-Japanese sentiment among the population, thus legitimising Chinese nationalism and the Communist Party.’

‘The Chinese interpret the Japanese response to the Taiwan issue in the same way: they are interfering in our domestic affairs and think they can lord it over East Asia once again. Criticism of Japan with regard to the past is partly justified; perhaps the Japanese could do more to show remorse.

‘But what the Japanese are currently saying about the importance of Taiwan has little to do with that. Japan isvery much concerned with safeguarding those free shipping routes and upholding international law and democracy in East Asia. The Chinese refuse to acknowledge that.’

Until China invades Taiwan, Wits does not expect it to come to an armed conflict between China and Japan. ‘Relations are currently at their nadir. On the other hand, there is a great deal of economic interdependence: the countries trade extensively with each other. But this issue touches so deeply on the core interests of both countries; and we in the West may be underestimating that. Taiwan must, and will, become part of China.’

Status Quo

There is really no solution to be found for this conflict, says Wits: ‘The best possible scenario is simply to maintain the status quo, i.e. the situation as it currently stands. But China is behaving more and more aggressively towards Taiwan, and that puts Japan in a difficult position. 

Wits does not expect China to invade Taiwan in the short term: ‘The economy and the military are not ready for that yet, but in two years’ time, the situation could be very different.’

An invasion would not only affect the region. Taiwan is a crucial link in the development of advanced microchips. If that fell away as a result of war, it could not easily be replaced. ‘It has been estimated that such a war could cost around ten per cent of global GDP.’

Moreover, the balance of power in the region would then tilt in China’s favour, allowing it to increase its global influence. ‘It would weaken Japan and deal a massive blow to democracies in that part of the world. It could also cause a domino effect, weakening democracies worldwide.’

Europe does not seem to have Taiwan’s importance clearly on its radar, although providing a counterweight could certainly have an effect. ‘China could choose to set this region ablaze. That is why deterrence is crucial. The Japanese are doing this by investing more in defence. Europe could, for example, strengthen its ties with Taiwan in the economic sphere and through unofficial diplomacy. By allowing Taiwan to participate more on the international stage, Europe can show its support for the survival of a democratic Taiwan.’

When it comes to military aid, there is little Europe can do. ‘Ultimately, it comes down to what the Americans will do. They still have a large number of troops stationed in the region. Around 30,000 in South Korea and 50,000 in Japan – the largest concentration of American troops outside the US. Not to mention their various bases in the Philippines. 

‘China’s long-term goal is an Asia without American soldiers’, says Wits. But that is unlikely to happen any time soon. The Americans have major economic interests in the region’s trade routes. ‘For now, they’re unwilling to throw Japan under the bus, even though Trump appears more than ready to abandon European allies.’ 

Casper Wits. China & Japan: Rivals on a Global Fault Line. 26 January, 17:00-18:15 (doors open at 16:45). Amare, Spuiplein 150